Pirate Shop Token Chance Calculator
Enter how many chests you open. See the chance of finding at least one Pirate Shop Token at 1 in 700,000 per chest.
Your chests
At least one token
0.171%
n = 1,200 · p = 1/700,000
How rare is that?
At 1 in 700,000, you need about 73,753 chests for a 10% chance, 485,203 for 50%, and 1,611,809 for 90%.
A four-stack opening ~120 chests/day for a full Treasure Hunters season still sits under 1% in most grind plans. Treat a find as a lottery win, not a grind reward.
Math assumes independent rolls at the same p. Epic has not published an official drop rate; 1/700,000 is the figure used across player tools.
Chests vs probability
| Chests opened | Chance of ≥1 token |
|---|---|
| 100 | 0.014% |
| 500 | 0.071% |
| 1,000 | 0.143% |
| 5,000 | 0.712% |
| 10,000 | 1.42% |
| 50,000 | 6.89% |
| 100,000 | 13.3% |
| 485,203 | 50.0% |
| 700,000 | 63.2% |
| 1,000,000 | 76.0% |
Formula: 1 − (1 − 1/700,000)n. Uses p = 0.00014% per chest.